Stage 1 at the BLAST.tv Austin Major wasn’t just a qualification filter. It was the first real test of LAN meta, team discipline under pressure, and most importantly, how well the betting markets align with what actually happens on the server.
This is not a recap of wins and losses. It’s an analysis of how teams played, what that means for Stage 2, and where the sharp angles lie for bettors tracking systems – not brands.
Underdogs That Created Value – Not Just Surprises
MongolZ – Aggression with Structure
- 3–0 record (wins over Heroic, BetBoom, Aurora)
- 66% winrate on Anubis, 81% CT hold success
- 64% T-side winrate on Mirage
- Team trade success: 0.94 (higher than NAVI at PGL)
Market miss: Closed at avg. 2.45 odds despite map advantages in every series
Betting angles for Stage 2: 1st Half +2.5 / Over 26.5 / Win Map 1 on Mirage or Anubis
KOI – A Macro Team in Disguise
- 52% 3v3 retake success
- Mid-round impact leader: jL (5.3 impact / round)
- Mirage + Anubis featured in all maps played
Market miss: Priced at 2.10 vs GUILD – won with full control and spacing
Pattern: If they win pistol, their economy snowballs. Always more consistent on CT. Look for live bets post-Round 5.
Aurora – The Best Elimination Team
- 1–3 but never lost by more than 5 rounds
- KAST: 75.9%, Team Impact: 1.11
- Played Mirage, Ancient, Overpass, Anubis
Why it matters: Their data helps expose the weaknesses of FaZe, Heroic — valuable for prep, demos, or secondary betting models.
Favorites That Underperformed Market Expectations
FaZe
- Lost to MongolZ (on CT side)
- Broky: 0.94 K/D, 33% AWP opening rate
- 2v2 clutch winrate: 38%
G2
- 3–1 record, but most maps won via force buy or comeback
- Economic starts poor – negative round spread after pistol rounds
- Mid-round kill rate: 2.7/min (lowest of all 3–1 teams)
Betting lesson: Avoid pre-match ML unless side and map confirmed. G2 only stable from CT-start. FaZe must be played live – not in blind pre-match bets.
Stage 1 Map Trends
| Map | Frequency | CT Winrate | T Winrate | Betting Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anubis | 11 | 57% | 43% | Controlled by tempo teams – Over picks viable |
| Mirage | 10 | 50% | 50% | Decider trend – 3 of 5 comebacks happened here |
| Inferno | 8 | 48% | 52% | Balanced – needs round context, not raw ML |
| Overpass | 6 | 46% | 54% | Underdogs win more often than favorites |
| Nuke | 5 | 61% | 39% | CT-heavy – but high risk for ML betting |
Live and Pre-Match Scenarios to Exploit in Stage 2
| Scenario | Suggested Bet |
|---|---|
| MongolZ vs Tier-1 team | Over 26.5 / Win Map 1 / First Half +2.5 |
| KOI loses pistol | Live ML comeback (if economy resets cleanly) |
| G2 on T-start | Delay ML, bet only with round control or side switch |
| Decider = Mirage | Over 27.5 / Underdog +6.5 |
Key Data Points
- Highest KAST: ropz (81%)
- Top entry success: sdy (64%)
- Lowest CT hold: Heroic (40% retake winrate)
- Best 2v2 clutch team: MongolZ (68%)
Conclusion
Stage 1 wasn’t just about which teams survived – it was about which structures worked under pressure. MongolZ and KOI provided tangible value, while FaZe and G2 underdelivered relative to pre-match pricing.
Stage 2 is still market-inefficient. The gap between team names and how they actually play is wide. If you follow maps, tempo, and role execution – that gap is your opportunity.
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Mary S Colbert is a Chief Content Editor at csgobettings.gg, specializing in CS2 with over 8 years of experience as an e-sports analyst. Her informative articles on the game have made her a go-to resource for fans and her expertise is widely respected within the industry.
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